California's Top-Two Primary Was Meant to Moderate Politics, but November Looks Like Business as Usual

California's top-two primary was sold as a way to shake up state politics, yet the results of Tuesday's election point toward a familiar partisan contest for governor in November. Xavier Becerra, the current Democratic front-runner, appears set to face Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host.

Further down the ballot, the pattern holds. In races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, controller and treasurer, well-financed Democrats are competing against Republicans who range from long shots to even longer ones. In congressional contests in West Los Angeles and Napa Valley, progressive challengers who took on moderate incumbents appear to have been boxed out, leaving Reps. Mike Thompson and Brad Sherman to face Republican opponents with little chance of winning.

Andrew Sinclair, a Claremont McKenna College political scientist who has studied the system, said the explanation lies in the arithmetic. Democratic candidates regularly collect about 60% of the statewide vote, enough to make general elections predictable but not enough to routinely push two Democrats through the primary. "After about 60% to 65% Democratic vote share, it starts to get much more likely to get D-on-D races," he said, describing recent results as "right in the electoral dead zone."

Voters approved the system in 2010 over the opposition of both major parties. Backers, including then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, argued it would reduce paralysis and partisan bickering by rewarding candidates who appeal beyond their party base. In practice, said Eric McGhee of the Public Policy Institute of California, the smaller June electorate is dominated by committed partisans who rally behind their party's strongest candidate. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat who campaigned against "extremism on both sides," received 4%. "Voters are partisan, at the end of the day," said consultant Steve Maviglio, who voted for him.

Same-party matchups are more common in local races, where single districts lean heavily one way. USC's Christian Grose said about a third of legislative general election races over the past decade have pitted two members of the same party. This year, two Democrats are on track to advance in congressional races across the Bay Area, Sacramento and Los Angeles. Statewide, the insurance commissioner's race is a notable exception, with Democrats Jane Kim and Ben Allen holding the top two spots. Grose's 2020 research found that congressional candidates in top-two states have an incentive to move toward the center.

Critics point to other flaws. Tom Charron of the California Ranked Choice Voting Coalition cited "cynical gaming," such as Gavin Newsom's 2018 effort to steer Republican voters toward John Cox, and a 2024 super PAC's multimillion-dollar boost for Republican Steve Garvey that undercut Democrat Katie Porter's Senate bid. Vote-splitting has also produced shutouts, including a 2012 San Bernardino congressional race in which Republicans claimed both slots despite a Democratic registration edge.

That risk loomed over this year's governor's race, when a crowded Democratic field threatened to leave the general election to Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Becerra and Democrat Tom Steyer finished well ahead of Bianco in the count so far. Sinclair said the party did "everything they possibly could" to invite a shutout, yet it did not happen, and strategic voting by worried Democrats may have helped.

The scare has renewed calls for change. Maviglio has filed a proposed ballot measure to repeal top two and restore partisan primaries, calling same-party general elections "undemocratic." Charron's group favors an Alaska-style model in which the top four or five finishers advance to a ranked-choice general election. In May, the Independent Voter Project helped launch a group pursuing a constitutional amendment for ranked-choice voting that could go before voters in 2028.